Asian Shares Rose and the Euro Held the Big Gains

The European Union on Monday postponed a summit by a week to allow time for a broader solution to Greece's debt crisis, after Athens said it had concluded talks with international lenders on an aid payment needed to avert default.

The debt saga in euro zone will remain in focus, traders and analysts said.

"The tug of war remains until the politicians wake up," said a Singapore-based trader, adding that gold is likely to be rangebound between $1,630 and $1,720.

Asian shares rose and the euro held the previous session's big gains. Societe Generale said it remains broadly bullish on the outlook for gold despite the recent retrenchment in prices, but lowered its 2012 average price forecast to $2,175 from $2,275.

Other precious metals also rose. Spot platinum rose nearly 1 percent to $1,531, extending the 1.8 percent climb in the previous session. _More >

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The Euro Rebounded From an Eight Month Low Against the Dollar

The euro rebounded from an eight-month low against the dollar as central banks in Asia purchased euros and sold dollars.

The euro made a comeback Friday after five consecutive days of declines against the U.S. dollar and Japanese yen and reduced its decline to just above 2 percent in the last week.

It managed to pull through from the lowest level in 10 years after the Group of 20 nations made the commitment to come up with a effective and coordinated approach to the problems confronting the world economy.
The G-20 is composed of highly developed nations from the Americas, Europe and Asia that include the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Russia and China.

"The welcome news is that the euro is not giving way," declared Callum Henderson of Standard Chartered PLC in Singapore.

The euro was at 103.03 compared to the yen in Tokyo from 102.64 in New York on Thursday. It went up to $1.3501 from $1.3465 Thursday. The lowest was at $1.3385 on Jan. 19.

Bloomberg reported that the G-20 members released a statement in Washington citing the "commitment in making a strong and coordinated international response to address renewed challenges facing the global economy, notably from heightened downside risks brought about by sovereign stresses, financial system fragility, market turbulence, weak economic growth and unacceptably high employment."  _More >

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Index of Shares in Developed Nations Also Fell Into a Bear Market

The MSCI index, which slipped 0.3 percent as of 1:33 p.m. in Hong Kong today, has lost more than 20 percent since peaking on May 2, meeting the common definition of a bear market. It tumbled 4.5 percent to a 13-month low of 277.38 yesterday. The MSCI World (MXWO) Index of shares in developed nations also fell into a bear market yesterday, plunging 4.2 percent. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index reached the 20 percent threshold on Sept. 13. 

Stocks fell, pushing the MSCI All- Country World Index of 45 nations into a bear market for the first time in more than two years, after the worsening European debt crisis and threat of a U.S. recession erased more than $10 trillion from equities since May. 

The world is poised for a financial crisis, Mohamed El- Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., said in Washington yesterday. Finance chiefs from the Group of 20 nations pledged late yesterday to address “heightened downside risks” to the global economy, echoing language used by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 21 when it announced a $400 billion plan to spur growth as the recovery from the worst contraction since the Great Depression falters. 

“The market is pricing in a recession,” said Ng Soo Nam, the Singapore-based chief investment officer at Nikko Asset Management Co., which oversees about $154 billion. “Stocks are looking cheap, but it will take a lot of courage to believe that. Things could get worse. The risk of a sovereign-debt default in Greece is the most significant concern.” More >

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Indikator MA Guppy

Indikator ini ditemukan dan dikembangkan pertama kali oleh Daryl Guppy yang merupakan pendiri sekaligus Direktur dari Guppytraders.com Pty Ltd. Dimana Saat ini dia merupakan trader aktif yang men-Tradingkan berbagai produk berjangka. Sedangkan Buku terkenalnya ialah "The 36 Strategies of the Chinese For Financial Traders, Share Trading and Trading Tactics, Bear Trading, Chart Trading, Trading Asian Shares" (dicetak dalam bahasa mandarin).

Pada awal tahun 2008 dia juga menerbitkan buku yang berjudul "Snapshot Trading" (juga dalam bahasa Mandarin). Bukunya yang berjudul Trend Trading menjadi best seller yang dipublikasikan di Beijing.

Ia juga mengembangkan indikator Guppy Multiple Moving Average dengan Metastock, Omnitrader dan berbagai program grafik lainnya. Ia juga menyampaikan kursus terakreditasi mengenai analisa teknikal Singapore Stock Exchange and Society of Remisiers, di Singapura. Dia juga merupakan salah satu anggota kehormatan dari Australian Government Shareholders and Investors Advisory Council. Secara rutin ia juga menyampaikan komentar dan analisa pada acara CNBC yang bertajuk CNBC Asia Squawk Box.

Selain itu ia juga menjadi kontributor (penulis), untuk salah satu majalah Sydney Futures Exchange magazine, Your Trading Edge, Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities, Active Trader, Working Money, Bridge Trader, Australia's Shares and Personal Investment, Singapore's Smart Investor, The Edge, dan Personal Money di Malaysia.

Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA)
Pada indikator Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA), adalah sebuah perangkat indikator yang menghitung hubungan pada setiap Moving Average. Setiap grup MA dalam GMMA akan menghasilkan dua buah kekuatan besar dari market yaitu trader dan investor. Indikator ini memberikan suatu gambaran pada kita tentang hubungan tepat antara metodologi trading dengan GMMA. Indikator ini didesain untuk menjelaskan aktifitas trend harian atau basis intraday (trading selama beberapa jam).

Grup Moving Averages yang digunakan ialah Moving Averages dalam jangka pendek. Dimana para Trader dapat selalu melihat setiap perubahan dari trend ini. Kelompok MA itu adalah 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 dan 15. Grup Moving Averages dibuat untuk menentukan suatu trend. Jika tidak ada trend, maka indikator ini menjadi tidak berfungsi. Artikel Guppy MA direlease pertama kali pada artikel Trend Trading (tanggal 4 April) oleh Daryl Guppy.

Seorang Trader akan masuk market pada saat terlihat ada perubahan dalam Moving Average. Mereka selalu menganstisipasi adanya perubahan trend. Trend yang kuat akan sangat membantu bagi para investor jangka panjang. Para investor lebih suka menggunakan indikator Moving Averages untuk jangka panjang.

Aplikasi

Secara natural pada indikator ini digunakan untuk mengukur sebuah trend. Indikator ini dapat diterapkan pada trading jangka panjang dan trading harian. Secara singkat untuk menampilkan indikator Guppy adalah dengan menggabungkan dalam grafik MA anda periode : 3, 5, 8, 10, 12 dan 15 (untuk Guppy jangka pendek), dan MA 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 (untuk Guppy jangka panjang). Ingin Lihat Hasilnya >

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The World Economy Will Expand 4 Percent this Year

The Standard & Poor’s GSCI Index of 24 commodities gained 0.3 percent by 12:33 p.m. in Seoul, trimming the week’s decline to 6.6 percent, the worst since May 6. The gauge is heading for its biggest quarterly loss since 2008. Copper fell to a one-year low and spot gold was set for its worst week in more than four months. Oil was poised for the first weekly drop in five.

Commodities were set for their worst week in more than four months on deepening concern that policy makers are running of tools to avert another global recession, hurting demand for metals, fuel and food.

Central bankers and finance ministers will discuss the economic outlook today at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington. The Federal Reserve on Sept. 21 said it will replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries, saying it sees “significant downside risks” to growth.The world economy will expand 4 percent this year and next, the International Monetary Fund said on Sept. 20, cutting forecasts made in June for a 4.3 percent expansion this year and 4.5 percent in 2012.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange fell as much as 2.2 percent to $7,505 a metric ton, the lowest price since September last year, and traded at $7,580. Prices declined for a sixth day and have slumped 26 percent from the record $10,190 on Feb. 15.

China Manufacturing

Manufacturing in China, the world’s largest metals user, may shrink for a third month in September, according to a preliminary index of purchasing managers from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics released yesterday. The initial reading for this month was 49.4 compared with a final 49.9 for August and 49.3 for July. Figures below 50 signal a contraction.  More >

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